Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.978662 2.088674 2.204002 2.334347 2.478092 2.632378 2.811309
2025-04-20 1.827774 1.982064 2.151437 2.352740 2.587589 2.855628 3.188724
2025-04-27 1.742175 1.925694 2.133965 2.390974 2.704184 3.079867 3.574971
2025-05-04 1.677663 1.882598 2.121441 2.425416 2.809800 3.291374 3.961058
2025-05-11 1.600400 1.816320 2.073080 2.407745 2.843493 3.409145 4.232332
2025-05-18 1.536592 1.760835 2.032155 2.393264 2.875898 3.523141 4.506526
2025-05-25 1.479160 1.709078 1.991445 2.374180 2.897756 3.621010 4.765208
2025-06-01 1.427881 1.661823 1.952942 2.354033 2.914439 3.710135 5.018491
2025-06-08 1.390956 1.630541 1.932630 2.355767 2.959955 3.842892 5.356503
2025-06-15 1.365598 1.612527 1.928079 2.377670 3.034415 4.024245 5.801172
2025-06-22 1.321427 1.568005 1.885964 2.344265 3.024332 4.071789 6.015950
2025-06-29 1.279513 1.524791 1.843600 2.307883 3.006616 4.104321 6.206156
2025-07-06 1.233313 1.474926 1.791040 2.255356 2.962456 4.092137 6.314426
2025-07-13 1.215674 1.462479 1.788985 2.275609 3.031949 4.276402 6.846426
2025-07-20 1.204742 1.458415 1.797969 2.312009 3.128876 4.517650 7.551303
2025-07-27 1.193227 1.452950 1.804467 2.344585 3.221491 4.761403 8.325439
2025-08-03 1.166917 1.426208 1.779624 2.327886 3.230546 4.850181 8.750971
2025-08-10 1.143042 1.402066 1.757545 2.314196 3.243410 4.947073 9.222324
2025-08-17 1.119163 1.377196 1.733492 2.296151 3.247269 5.026194 9.667979
2025-08-24 1.096219 1.352981 1.709549 2.277094 3.247893 5.098523 10.116040
2025-08-31 1.080372 1.338295 1.698991 2.278734 3.285168 5.250603 10.853418
2025-09-07 1.070631 1.331924 1.700362 2.299451 3.358114 5.487585 11.959014
2025-09-14 1.047028 1.305153 1.670522 2.267852 3.332305 5.504004 12.316663